Agent 01 · Early Warning Intelligence · StewardWise AI
A Donor Is About to Leave.
You Don't Know It Yet.
Jennifer Martinez has been giving for three years. Her risk score just dropped to 38 out of 100. She is opening every email you send. She has not clicked once in 89 days. That is pre-lapse behavior. The system found it. No one on your team did.
She is still opening your emails. But she stopped clicking 3 months ago. The system detected the shift before she knew she was leaving.
- 90-day early warning with 83% predictive accuracy across 100,000 plus donor journeys.
- Opens-without-clicks flagged as pre-lapse signal before the gift stops.
- 3-touch retention sequence generated automatically per at-risk donor.
- 83% save rate at early warning vs. below 15% post-lapse. Timing is everything.
90 days
Early warning window
83%
Predictive accuracy
83%
Donor save rate
Below 15%
Post-lapse save rate
55% of Your Donors Disappear Every Year. Quietly. Before Anyone Notices.
Donor attrition does not happen suddenly. It happens in stages over 6 to 12 months while your team is focused on acquisition, events, and appeals. Email open rates drop from 58% to 12%. A donor who attended every event for three years declines two in a row. Someone who always gave in October misses the window by three weeks and then by six weeks and then gives nothing.
Each of those signals, seen in isolation, looks like noise. Seen together by a system trained on 100,000 plus donor journeys, they are a pattern. They are pre-lapse behavior. And the moment you can see pre-lapse behavior, you can intervene. At months 1 to 3, the save rate is 70 to 85%. At month 13, it is below 15%. The difference between those two outcomes is whether you see the signal in time.
Donor Risk Alert monitors every donor in your file simultaneously for the 20 plus engagement signals that precede a lapse. It surfaces the at-risk donors 90 days before the gift stops, generates a retention playbook specific to each one, and tells your team exactly who to call today and what to say.
Jennifer Martinez. Risk Score 38. The System Found Her Before You Did.
Donor Risk Alert · At-Risk Donor Dashboard
3
Critical · Act now
7
Warning · Watch closely
12
Watching · Signals emerging
847
Healthy · Engaged
Critical Alert · Immediate Action Required
Jennifer Martinez
Risk Score
38/100 · Down from 72 three months ago
Lapse Risk
78% probability within 45 days
Signals
Email opens dropped from 58% to 12%. Declined 2 consecutive events. 89 days since last engagement action. Still opening. Not clicking.
Pattern
Opens-without-clicks after multi-year giving history. Strongest pre-lapse signal in donor data. Emotional disengagement before gift cessation.
Retention Action Generated
Personal call from Development Director plus impact report specific to Jennifer's giving history plus donor appreciation event invitation. Three-touch sequence beginning within 7 days.
Act within 7 days for optimal re-engagement probability.
Generated Retention Sequence · Jennifer Martinez · 3 Touches · 21 Days
1
Day 1 to 3
Personal Call
Development Director personal call. Opening: "Jennifer, I was looking at your giving history and realized we have never personally thanked you for what three years of support has made possible." No ask. Just recognition. Relationship reactivation.
+31% retention
2
Day 7 to 10
Email
Subject: The student your gift made possible. Personalized impact report connecting Jennifer's giving history to a specific program outcome. Marcus Johnson story matched to her engagement profile. One CTA: share your impact.
+28% retention
3
Day 18 to 21
Invitation
Exclusive donor appreciation event invitation. Framing: "You're invited to meet the students your gifts made possible." Personal invitation from the Executive Director. RSVP requested. Not a fundraiser. A relationship moment.
+14% retention
Predicted renewal probability if sequence is completed on schedule
73%
The Only Thing That Changes the Outcome Is Timing.
Intervening at months 1 to 3 yields a 70 to 85% save rate. Waiting until month 13 drops that below 15%. Donor Risk Alert makes months 1 to 3 visible so you never operate at the 15% scenario again.
Early Warning Intervention · Months 1 to 3
70-85%
Save rate when pre-lapse signals are detected and a retention sequence begins at months 1 to 3. The donor is still emotionally connected. They are opening emails. They attended an event 90 days ago. The relationship is retrievable with the right touch at the right moment.
Post-Lapse Reactivation · Month 13 and Beyond
Below 15%
Reactivation rate after a full lapse. The donor has mentally moved on. They have redirected their giving. They no longer associate your mission with their philanthropic identity. The relationship is effectively over. The cost of reacquisition is higher than retention would have been.
Every Donor. Monitored. Every Signal. Surfaced.
20 Plus Engagement Signals Monitored
Email open rates. Click-through behavior. Event attendance. Survey response patterns. Giving timing shifts. Smaller gift amounts. Missed usual giving windows. No single signal is definitive. The pattern across 20 plus signals is. Donor Risk Alert reads the full picture across every donor in your file simultaneously.
90-Day Early Warning Window
The alert fires 90 days before the gift is likely to lapse. Not after. Not when it is too late. Jennifer Martinez's score dropped from 72 to 38 over three months. The alert fired at 38. She has not missed a gift yet. She is still savable. That is the window Donor Risk Alert is built to find and act on.
Retention Playbook Generated Automatically
The alert does not just flag the risk. It generates the response. A three-touch retention sequence specific to that donor's profile, giving history, and engagement pattern. Personal call script. Impact email with the right story. Appreciation event invitation. Your team does not have to decide what to do. They execute the playbook.
Built for Small Development Teams
A development team of two cannot manually monitor 1,247 donors for lapse signals. They are managing events, writing appeals, meeting with major gift prospects, and doing board prep. Donor Risk Alert does the monitoring and surfaces only the donors who need immediate human attention. The team focuses on relationships. The system watches the signals.
83% Predictive Accuracy
The model was trained on 100,000 plus donor journeys. Opens-without-clicks after a multi-year giving history is one of the strongest lapse signals in the data. A score of 38 down from 72 over three months with 89 days of no engagement action means Jennifer Martinez has a 78% probability of lapsing within 45 days. That is a pattern the model has seen thousands of times.
Your CRM Records What Happened. This Predicts What Is About to Happen.
That is a different capability entirely.
Salesforce records that Jennifer gave in October 2025. Donor Risk Alert detects that her engagement pattern over the following three months indicates a 78% probability of lapse before her next usual giving window. One looks backward. The other changes the outcome.
From Reactive to Predictive
Without Donor Risk Alert
- Jennifer Martinez lapses in March. No one noticed the signals in December.
- Development director discovers the lapse when generating the April report
- Reactivation attempt sent. Below 15% probability of response.
- 55% of the donor file lapses annually. The pattern is invisible until it is too late.
- Development team spends time on acquisition to replace lapsed donors
- Cost to replace lapsed donors exceeds cost of retaining them 3 to 5 times over
- The treadmill continues. More acquisition. More attrition. No visibility into either.
With Donor Risk Alert
- Jennifer Martinez flagged at risk score 38 in December. 90 days before likely lapse.
- Three-touch retention sequence generated and assigned immediately
- Personal call made within 7 days. Relationship reactivated. Gift retained.
- 73% predicted renewal probability when the sequence is completed on schedule
- Development team focuses retention effort on at-risk donors, not on replacing them
- Retention cost is a fraction of reacquisition cost at every donor tier
- The leak is visible. The intervention is systematic. The outcome changes.
How Many Donors in Your Database Right Now Are Showing This Same Pattern and No One Knows?
That is what we find. Every month. Automatically.
Your Donors Want to Stay. Give Them a Reason To Before They Decide Not To.
Get started and see Donor Risk Alert surface your at-risk donors before the first gift is missed.
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